INPUT ---------  CALCULATED SECTION  ---------
Note:  Blue-shaded areas are inputs,
  other cells are calculated.  
Monthly severity inputs: Month over
Month month Cumul
Year Month Severity Trend index trend trend
2000 1 1.12[1] 1 1.009488793 1.009488793
2000 2 1.12 2 1.009488793 1.019067623
2000 3 1.12 3 1.009488793 1.028737345
2000 4 1.12 4 1.009488793 1.03849882
2000 5 1.12 5 1.009488793 1.048352921
2000 6 1.12 6 1.009488793 1.058300524
2000 7 1.12 7 1.009488793 1.068342519
2000 8 1.12 8 1.009488793 1.0784798
2000 9 1.12 9 1.009488793 1.088713271
2000 10 1.12 10 1.009488793 1.099043846
2000 11 1.12 11 1.009488793 1.109472446
2000 12 1.12 12 1.009488793 1.12  
2001 1 1.08 13 1.00643403 1.127206114
2001 2 1.08 14 1.00643403 1.134458592
2001 3 1.08 15 1.00643403 1.141757733
2001 4 1.08 16 1.00643403 1.149103836
2001 5 1.08 17 1.00643403 1.156497205
2001 6 1.08 18 1.00643403 1.163938143
2001 7 1.08 19 1.00643403 1.171426956
2001 8 1.08 20 1.00643403 1.178963952
2001 9 1.08 21 1.00643403 1.186549442
2001 10 1.08 22 1.00643403 1.194183736
2001 11 1.08 23 1.00643403 1.201867151
2001 12 1.08 24 1.00643403 1.2096
Notes: Month over month trend = (Severity trend)^(1/12)
Claim Examples:
Claim # Alpha Acc yr Acc Mo. Rpt yr Rpt mo. Pmt Yr Pmt mo. Sample Size of loss
1 0.6 2001 1 2001 4 2001 8 100,000
2 0 2000 1 2000 1 2001 1 100,000
3 0.6 2000 1 2000 1 2001 1 100,000
4 1 2000 1 2000 1 2001 1 100,000
   
Claim # Acc mo index Rpt Mo Index Pmt Mo Index Cum trend Acc date Cum trend Pmt date Alpha-Modified Cum trend Trended size of loss
1 13 16 20 1.127206 1.178963952 1.157981577 115798.158
2 1 1 13 1.009489 1.127206114 1.009488793 100948.879
3 1 1 13 1.009489 1.127206114 1.078555759 107855.576
4 1 1 13 1.009489 1.127206114 1.127206114 112720.611
Note:  Sample size of loss is the random value drawn from the model's selected size of loss distribution.

[1]
joe marker:
Annualized month-over-month trend