-------  INPUT SECTION  ------- --------------  CALCULATED SECTION  --------------
 
Inputs   Monthly Month over Monthly
Poisson Monthly Exposure Normalized month Cumul Poisson
Month Year lambda Exposure Season Trend lambda Factor Season trend trend mean
 
1 2000 120 2 2 1.061677812[1] 10 0.083333 1.6 1.005 1.005 16.080000[2]
2 2000 120 2 2 1.061677812 10 0.083333 1.6 1.005 1.010025 16.160400
3 2000 120 2 2 1.061677812 10 0.083333 1.6 1.005 1.015075 16.241202
4 2000 120 2 1 1.061677812 10 0.083333 0.8 1.005 1.020151 8.161204
5 2000 120 2 1 1.061677812 10 0.083333 0.8 1.005 1.025251 8.202010
6 2000 120 2 1 1.061677812 10 0.083333 0.8 1.005 1.030378 8.243020
7 2000 120 2 1 1.061677812 10 0.083333 0.8 1.005 1.035529 8.284235
8 2000 120 2 1 1.061677812 10 0.083333 0.8 1.005 1.040707 8.325656
9 2000 120 2 1 1.061677812 10 0.083333 0.8 1.005 1.045911 8.367285
10 2000 120 2 1 1.061677812 10 0.083333 0.8 1.005 1.05114 8.409121
11 2000 120 2 1 1.061677812 10 0.083333 0.8 1.005 1.056396 8.451167
12 2000 120 2 1 1.061677812 10 0.083333 0.8 1.005 1.061678 8.493422
 
Notes: Trend input is 1.005^12 for 2000   
 
 
C:\LossSimulator\Model\docs\[Trend-Season-Expos_example.xls]Sheet1  

[1]
joe marker:
1.005^12
[2]
joe marker:
= Monthly lambda *  Normalized seasonality * Cumulative trend